“The 5 key parameters are: 1. Most significant issue remains tidal stacking within the Lynnhaven basin. High risk to low level residential flooding . We will be closely monitoring the endangered neighborhoods and at this time have not issued any evacuation directives. The number of high/low tide cycles looks to rival the number we experienced in the 2009 Nor’easter.”

From an email to Empsy from Councilman Bill Desteph:

Subject: Hurricane Sandy Update #4

Empsy,

FYI.
At the City Manager’s afternoon update staff reviewed the current conditions and projections of Hurricane Sandy (see attached)(19pg PDF). We are not registering any significant changes to the projections we summarized in our morning update #3. The 5 key parameters are:
1. Most significant issue remains tidal stacking within the Lynnhaven basin. High risk to low level residential flooding . We will be closely monitoring the endangered neighborhoods and at this time have not issued any evacuation directives. The number of high/low tide cycles looks to rival the number we experienced in the 2009 Nor’easter.
2. Sustained wind, though not expected to reach hurricane force, will gust to a tropical storm level, will last for over 48 hours. Tree and debris knock down will cause power outages. We participated in Dominions conference call and I personally talked with their senior manager, Max Bartholomew.
3. Storm (tidal) surge poses our third threat. Atlantic wave height projection has grown to +12 feet; Bay wave height has grown to 8 feet. Beach erosion will likely be significant. Beach replenishment projects scheduled for the oceanfront scheduled to commence next month are quite timely. We’ll need to make a critical assessment of the Bay beaches and develop protection strategies.
4. Rain possess a 4th threat to our citizens and property. Some areas of the City may receive up to 6 inches. Surface ponding will occur as runoff will be hindered due to elevated levels of the Lynnhaven, Elizabeth and North Landing Rivers, Back Bay and the many lakes and ponds throughout the City.
5. Duration is what is making this storm a significant event. Weather conditions will deteriorate on Saturday afternoon and impact the City thru Tuesday. The height of the storm is projected to be Sunday afternoon till early Monday afternoon.

Facility closings will be announced beginning tomorrow. Most will be open tomorrow as scheduled, but we are not anticipating opening other than essential facilities on Sunday. Mondays conditions will be further refined on Sunday for determining what openings/closing will occur at the start of the new work week. At this time we do not anticipate the need for opening any public shelters. VB Public Schools briefed their preparedness to open Birdneck ES if needed. Sherriff Stolle advised his deputies are prepared to support where needed. The Registrar’s Office will be open tomorrow and closed Sunday. The Virginia Beach EOC will be partially activated on Saturday for updates scheduled for 0900 and 1500.

Grommet Park’s berm was completed midday today. Public Utility generators have been readied to back up our pump stations. The beach stage canopies have been removed as have been the wooden handicap ramps and trashcans on the sand. The Blue Moon Wicked 10K Run at the ocean front will be held on Saturday as planned. The post-race party has moved from the beach to the convention center. Sunday afternoon’s Virginia Symphony concert is under review. We continue to issue press releases, update information on our website and our social media sites. We’ll keep you advised.

Emphasis ours.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
751 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

* TIMING…TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE HIGH SURF. FOR TIDAL
FLOODING…SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACT AND WATER LEVELS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH THE MONDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

* IMPACTS…WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO 2 TO 4 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE SUNDAY MORNING TIDE CYCLE…AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MONDAY EVENING TIDE CYCLE. MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF EACH HIGH TIDE.

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